Thoughts on the 4th week of the election campaign

• Every day the papers have big headlines on how one party is losing support or how another has made big gains. A lot of bullshit frankly. Since we do not have proportional representation but a first out of the post system, national polling doesn't mean too much. Just look at the Bloc with 9% of the vote and likely to win 50 seats and the Greens with 10% of the vote and no seats. Only polling at the riding level matters.
• As always, the debates were a big yawn for me. A lot of scripted theatrics and little spontaneity. I thought Elizabeth May injected a little energy into the affair. Layton was just so over the top.
• There isn't much Stephane Dion can do to save his job now. He is unlikely to win as many seats as the Liberal had in 2006 and I'm not sure that would be enough. The knives are out just lurking in the shadows.
• Certainly the split vote on the centre and left will ensure a Conservative victory and could turn into a majority in a future election. I think the sluggish economy is the only thing keeping the Conservatives from that majority this time around. Harper picked the fall for an election because the economy will only get worse in 2009.