President Bush is visiting the Middle East because he would like to add to his already impressive legacy by establishing a Palestinian state by the end of his term in office. The lame duck president along with a weak Palestinian President and Israeli Prime Minister are going to accomplish what others have failed to do over the next 12 months.
I'm unfurling the "Mission Accomplished" banner right now.
To show their support, Hamas in the Gaza and Hizbullah in Lebanon have been firing rockets into Israel during Bush's visit.
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and President Mahmoud Abbas will begin meeting on core issues but both are so weak politically that they are in no position to make compromises or take bold positions. Both leaders are desperate for a deal but have no real mandate to make one. There is little media attention being given to the discussions because of the prevailing pessimism. Here are the key issues as I see it that need to be resolved if an agreement is to be reached.
1. The Palestinians insist on the right of Palestinians and descendants displaced by the Israeli War of Independence in 1948 to be allowed to return to their original homes if they wish. Israel argues that this would drastically alter the composition of their country and destroy its Jewish character. An alternative might be to provide monetary compensation but the Palestinians have never agreed to this.
2. Both Israelis and Palestinians have long claimed Jerusalem as their capital and each side has holy sites in the old city. Prior to the 1967 war, the city was divided and Israel insists it will never give back East Jerusalem which not is the home of 200,000 Israelis. A compromise that has been floated around for some time is to have the city administered by an international authority. To date, this has not been accepted by either side.
3. Palestinians insist that Israel give back all land captured in 1967 and return to the border that existed before the war. The problem is that there are now 275,000 Israelis living in settlements in the West Bank. Removing them will certainly lead to significant civil unrest and violence. Removing just 9,000 settlers from Gaza as part of the Israeli withdrawal was a major trauma to the country. One idea would be to trade land in Israel for land containing major settlements in the West Bank. This would still mean removing remote, smaller settlements which contain the most radical settlers.
4. What is to be done about Gaza? Hamas does not agree to making any concessions to Israel and does not accept its right to even exist. As long as Hamas continues to fire missiles into Israel, there can be no peace agreement. Does that mean involving Iran, Hamas' major sponsor? Well, that's not likely to happen.
5. The least discussed issue is a very significant one - access to water. The region has limited water resources and as I understand this issue, Israel began operating a dam in 1964 that diverts water from the Sea of Galilee, a major Jordan River water provider. Jordan and Syria also divert water flowing to the Jordan. A lack of cooperation between the countries in the regional has created a water crisis and is destroying the ecosystem. I understand the Dead Sea is slowly evaporating and will one day disappear.
