Turns out everybody won in Monday's by-elections, if you buy the spin—the Liberals because they scored three of four seats up for grabs, the Conservatives because they took a closely contested seat from the Grits, the Greens because they tripled their previous popularity, and the NDP because...hang on, this is a tough one...oh, yeah, because they came in second to the Liberals in popular vote. Aren't we an optimistic bunch in Canada.
Kidding aside, it really is hard to read the election results because it the 4 ridings are not necessarily representative of all Canadian voters. So you could spin it either as good news or bad news.
Clearly, the Greens have to most to be happy about even though they didn't come close to winning a seat. Their popular vote was at about the same level as the NDP in the by-elections and the ran third in 2 races including coming within 36 votes of a second place finish. The even beat the Conservatives in Rosedale. Still with such low voter turnout what will it all mean in a general election.
Yesterday's Decima poll shows national support at 8% which is not likely to mean a seat in the near future. Also are they just the beneficiaries of protest votes or do their numbers represent true supporters?
The Liberals won 3 out of the 4 by-elections but they lost one seat since all 4 were previously Liberal ridings. The Vancouver win was razor thin. The Saskatchewan loss illustrated how Dion's attempts to parachute a preferred candidates keeps backfiring on him. The Green Party success is not good for the Liberals because the Greens are poaching on centre-left voters. Dion will likely use the Environment as the centre piece of the Liberal election platform which puts them in direct competition with the Greens.
The Conservatives grabbed a seat and came close in Vancouver. But they did miserably in Toronto which won't like translate into a majority government in the future. Also the Decima poll shows support slipping most in Quebec and Ontario. Their support has been largely stalled for 2 years now. However, any shift in votes from the Liberals to the Greens might produce wins for Conservatives in tight races. The same thing ocurred when Reform and the PCs competed for right of centre voters.
The NDP have to be the big losers. They find themselves competing with the Greens for third spot in many ridings. It will be interesting to see what happens in NDP ridings during the next general election.