If the polls are right, the outcome of next Tuesday's Israeli election is a foregone conclusion. Not only does Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud seem bound to emerge as the largest single party, but the bloc of right-wing and religious parties that it leads seems certain to garner a winning majority in the 120-member Knesset.
All the latest polls put Likud ahead of Tzipi Livni's ruling Kadima Party, some by as many as 12 seats (34-22), others by as few as three (28-25), which theoretically is a small enough margin to be overcome via a coalition deal. But all the surveys without exception give the religious and right-wing parties a virtually unassailable lead, ranging from at least 10 seats (65-55) to as many as 18 (69-51).
That means Netanyahu is almost certain to be invited to form the next government.
The only question seems to be the nature of the coalition he forms. Will he go for a narrow right-religious government that includes the hard-line Yisrael Beiteinu party led by Avigdor Lieberman; two fervently Orthodox parties, Shas and Torah Judaism; and two national-religious parties, Jewish Home and National Union, associated with supporters of the settlements? Lieberman, who was born in present-day Moldova and once worked as a nightclub bouncer, wants Arab citizens to leave Israel, while at the same time encouraging greater Jewish emigration to the Jewish state.
Or will Netanyahu opt for a national unity government that also includes Kadima and/or Ehud Barak's Labor Party? Netanyahu claims his biggest mistake as prime minister from 1996 to 1999 was in not forming a national unity coalition with then-Labor leader Shimon Peres.
It is a mistake he does not intend to repeat.
This time, Netanyahu says, he wants to establish the widest possible national unity government with the parties on the right balanced by Kadima and Labor on the left. Likud insiders, however, suggest that he would actually prefer to leave Kadima in opposition, where he believes it will disintegrate as a political force. The thinking is that Kadima in opposition might split, with the hawks rejoining the Likud in return for government portfolios.