Can Dalton McGuinty win a third term?

Dalton McGuinty’s Liberal government has really stumbled in the past few months. The current Ontario government has a pretty smooth ride for the most part after first getting elected in October 2003. In their first term, the Liberals stuck to some core areas which were part of their campaign platform – heath care, education and the economy. The Liberals bought some labour peace and only stumbled on the commitment to no new taxes.

Second terms are always tougher. It becomes more difficult to stick to core issues and there is a tendency to drift off to other areas in response to stakeholder lobbying, unforeseen crises and complacency. The economic downturn was a huge challenge for all government but in Canada, Ontario was hit hard because of its dependence to the auto sector. Then suddenly this spring the Liberals began to stumble as a result of a series of poorly thought out policy initiatives. In the spring the Liberals announced a new sex education curriculum for schools in the province. It created a firestorm with parents and the government quickly retreated. Then in June, shortly before the start of the G20 Summit in Toronto, it was revealed that the Ontario government had approved a regulation under an obscure WWII statute to expand police authority for the week of the Summit. Neither the public, nor it seems the police as well, had an understanding of the new powers and it created another public relations disaster. Then the Ontario expanded the eco fee program with very little public information which created another public relations mess and another policy retreat.

Now not every policy initiative had been a disaster this year. The Liberals have managed to get through the HST changes and successfully battled the pharmacies. Yet things are not right. So what has happened to this McGuinty government? Most likely the chaos is the result of changes in the Premier’s office. The political staff behind the scene have incredible clout within government. They control the political agenda, communicating policy changes stakeholder management. McGuinty’s Chief of Staff in 2003 was Don Guy who also ran his 2003 election campaign. He was succeeded by Peter Wilkinson who ran the 2007 election campaign. Both were effective in keeping the government on track and on message. In April Peter Wilkinson was succeeded by Chris Morley who has risen through the ranks from McGuinty’s press secretary and other communication positions in the government. But things haven’t going so well under Morley’s watch which means there will be more changes coming to the Premier’s staff or further policy disasters.

The other factor is the changing faces in Cabinet. McGuinty began his first mandate with a much stronger inner core of Ministers - Greg Sorbara, Gerard Kennedy, George Smitherman, Dwight Duncan, Michael Bryant and Gerry Phillips. Most have moved on and not necessarily replaced with equivalent talent.

However, with a provincial election less than 15 months away, McGuinty doesn’t have a lot of time to fix the problem.